Green recovery determination: Interlinkage of international trade, crude oil price volatility, and economic performance

Abstract

This research delves into the intricate web of relationships between green economic growth, global trade, crude oil price volatility, and economic output. We use a complex econometric framework, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, to examine the long-term equilibrium correlations between these variables. When subjected to the Johansen co-integration test, strong long-term ties are shown to be present. The Error Correction Model (ECM) extension of the ARDL model reveals short-term dynamics and corrects deviations from equilibrium values. According to the results of the research, there is a connection between Green economic growth and international trade and economic performance. Economic performance is further dampened by the uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices. Policymakers in today's increasingly globalizing economy would do well to take note of these findings, as they highlight the vital role the factors mentioned above play in creating the Green recovery. The research provides further evidence that it is critical to integrate environmental factors into economic and trade policy in order to promote sustainable development. Based on the study's shreds of evidence, multiple policy implications are recommended for the associated stakeholders.