Abstract
In this study, Türkiye's natural gas consumption till 2030 is forecasted based on the greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets announced by the Turkish President. Two novel semi-empirical per capita based models are generated for forecasting. It is estimated that Türkiye's natural gas consumption in 2030 could reach 65.5 billion m3, and at this level nearly 650 million m3 of green hydrogen could be needed for 1.0% (v/v) blending. Root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of forecast generated by Model 2 are estimated as 3.6 and 5.5%, respectively. These RMSE and MAPE values indicate high accuracy. The forecasting results of Model 2 are also compared with highly cited forecasts from the literature. The accuracy of fit with these forecasts changed between 90.7%–99.9%, which might be considered as an indication of model success. Finally, it is believed that this study could further be adapted by other researchers for estimating local or national natural gas consumption and potential green hydrogen requirements for blending conditional that historic geographical per capita data is available and associated addition/availability factors are calculated based on current circumstances.
Published Version
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