Green credit and transformation to enhance the plastic supply chain in China: A three-player evolutionary game perspective approach under dynamic green awareness

Abstract

This study explores green credit to promote the green transformation of the plastic supply chain under carbon neutral and plastic ban policies in China. The relationship and strategy among commercial banks, suppliers, and manufacturers are analyzed using a supply chain structure and evolutionary game theory. Incorporate dynamic consumer willingness to recycle and cost-sharing mechanisms for green innovation. The stability and dynamic probability of participants' strategy selection are calculated using empirical data, including financial situation and carbon emission. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize the game parameters for sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that green credit can facilitate the green transformation of the plastics supply chain, but its effectiveness is affected by consumers' willingness to recycle. The effect of green credit has a marginal effect, with higher interest rates reducing the rate of green innovation and manufacturing choices. Suppliers are not able to share the costs of the transition, and only manufacturers bearing or co-bearing the costs are conducive to a green transition. Lower green input costs favor transition but are constrained by market demand. Environmental penalties are too low to create financial pressure, and environmental uncertainty discourages green transformation.