Greek vote will produce another fragile coalition

Abstract

Significance The election looks set to produce a result requiring a three-party coalition to form a government. Neither of the two main parties, the Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) and New Democracy (ND), is polling anything like enough to secure an absolute majority of 151 seats in the 300-seat parliament. Five, maybe six, smaller parties look likely to take seats, but cooperation with either of the main parties would be uneasy. Syriza has ruled out a government of national unity that could share the political cost of implementing Greece's third economic bailout programme. Impacts Backstage negotiations for the formation of a coalition government are already under way. Popular unrest, quiescent during the unlikely outgoing Syriza-led coalition, could flare again if the leftists go into opposition. The economy, on a fragile recovery trajectory, may plunge into recession once more with GDP falling by 2% or more over the next three years.