Great Turning: How Has the Chinese Economy Been Trapped in an Efficiency-and-Balance Tradeoff?

Abstract

Large-country development faces the challenge of meeting the dual goals of economic growth and regional development, while resolving the tension between these two objectives. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has attempted to use the allocation of construction land and fiscal transfer payments to encourage the industrial development of its underdeveloped areas. This paper shows that this attempt was accompanied by an overall economic slowdown and a decline in resource allocation efficiency, which not only undermines the international competitiveness of China's economy, but also creates an elevated risk of debt. The paper points out that the realization of China's dual goals of efficiency and regional balance will require increased labor mobility rather than a simple increase in the scale of policy driven resource relocation.