Great Horned Owls and Snowshoe Hares: What Causes the Time Lag in the Numerical Response of Predators to Cyclic Prey?

Abstract

Predator populations often decline with a time log after the peak of prey cycles. Theoretical models of predator-prey interactions predict that this delay is caused by a higher rate of population growth in prey, which leaves predators with super-abundant food after the peak and buffers their decline. This situation is met when predator populations have a lower innate capacity for increase than their prey or when the increase is inhibited because of territorial behaviour. Here, I refer to this hypothesis as 'single prey hypothesis' (SPH) in contrast to the 'multiple prey hypothesis' (MPH), which predicts that the delayed decline is caused by high availability of other prey species. Results on population growth rates of great horned owls showed that the predictions of SPH were met, although the predicted difference was small when floaters were taken into account or social exclusion from breeding was removed in a population model. In their diet, great horned owls relied to a large degree on the main cyclic prey (snowshoe hares), and thus the results were not in agreement with the MPH. Inverse density-dependent growth rates in the territorial population, density-dependent accumulation of floaters, and replacements of territorial vacancies were consistent with the hypothesis that social behaviour limited the number of owl territories. Reproduction of resident owls was immediately affected by the prey decline, indicating that there was no buffering effect of super-abundant food. Therefore, neither MPH nor SPH were satisfactory explanations, and I propose a mechanism based on individual behaviour to explain delayed numerical responses : territorial predators monopolize a disproportionately large amount of resources for reproduction during the increase and peak of the cycle, and are then buffered against prey declines by adjusting their breeding activities. Non-territorial floaters have lower access to resources and their numbers are affected more immediately by declining prey.