Grass to grain: Probabilistic modeling of agricultural conversion in the North American Great Plains

Abstract

Conversion of temperate grasslands in the North American Great Plains has long been identified as a threat to native species and systems. Avoiding conversion, particularly to agricultural cover, has been modeled to show benefits for preserving species diversity and connectivity and maintaining ecosystem services provided by grasslands such as avoiding nutrient and sediment runoff. To identify areas of likely conversion, we employed a probabilistic ecoregion-wide model using soil, topography, and climate variables to simulate future conversion. Our results indicated that roughly 60% of the ecoregion is at moderate or higher risk of conversion or has previously been converted. These data can be used to direct grassland conservation efforts and as a metric to assess suitability of future crop expansion. Also, with added information on government subsidies, clean energy mandates, conservation incentives, and other economic data, our model can be used to assess the benefits and disadvantages of such programs and policies.