Abstract
Training programs for conditional probabilities based on the graphic models tree diagram, inverted tree diagram and unit square are investigated with respect to their ability to overcome students’ misconceptions in this field. Theoretical considerations from viewpoint of cognitive psychology lead to the main hypotheses that 1. graphic visualization makes the understanding of conditional probabilities easier, and 2. the unit square is superior to the other two graphic models as it not only supports the access to the event space but also visualizes geometrically the size of probabilities. Both hypotheses can be confirmed in two experiments. These results are in sharp contrast to didactic reality, particularly textbooks which, if at all, use the tree diagram representation.
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