Abstract

Kidney transplantation is typically the most effective treatment for patients with end-stage renal disease. However, the supply of kidneys is far short of the fast-growing demand. Kidney paired donation (KPD) programs provide an innovative approach for increasing the number of available kidneys. In a KPD program, willing but incompatible donor-candidate pairs may exchange donor organs to achieve mutual benefit. Recently, research on exchanges initiated by altruistic donors (ADs) has attracted great attention because the resultant organ exchange mechanisms offer advantages that increase the effectiveness of KPD programs. Currently, most KPD programs focus on rule-based strategies of prioritizing kidney donation. In this paper, we consider and compare two graph-based organ allocation algorithms to optimize an outcome-based strategy defined by the overall expected utility of kidney exchanges in a KPD program with both incompatible pairs and ADs. We develop an interactive software-based decision support system to model, monitor, and visualize a conceptual KPD program, which aims to assist clinicians in the evaluation of different kidney allocation strategies. Using this system, we demonstrate empirically that an outcome-based strategy for kidney exchanges leads to improvement in both the quantity and quality of kidney transplantation through comprehensive simulation experiments.

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