Abstract
The availability of nonparental childcare may be an important factor that influences reproductive decisions. While there is still a shortage of formal childcare service in China, grandparents are one primary source of childcare for their grandchildren. However, impact evaluations regarding the contribution of grandparenting on fertility level in China are still limited; the established evaluation results are not conclusive, especially for the birth of the second child. In this paper, we provide a theoretical justification and an empirical study of the influence of grandparental childcare on the second birth. By introducing a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model, this study proves that intergenerational childcare plays a critical role in both boosting the fertility level and maintaining its positive tendency. Drawing on the nationally representative data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2016, we estimate the treatment effects of grandparental childcare for the first child on the second birth with the Propensity Score Matching method. After controlling the self-selection bias, the results show that intergenerational childcare can positively affect the second birth. Sensitivity analysis results show the relative robustness of our empirical estimates to potential hidden bias attributed to unobserved variables. We also draw policy implications from the analysis, calling for government policies not only to promote sustainable and healthy development of the childcare industry but also to support family life, especially grandparental childcare.
Highlights
Due to decades of falling birth rates and increase in life expectancy in China, population aging, a significant obstacle to social and economic development, is becoming a pressing issue that needs to be resolved
We first introduce a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model calibrated to be more in line with the national conditions of China. e numerical simulation results show that, with the increase of life expectancy, the hours that can be invested in grandparenting and the number of births will increase; grandparenting is an important factor that can boost the fertility level and can help maintain its positive trend. en, we conduct empirical analysis using the nationally representative data of CMDS2016, with which we mainly explore the impact of having grandparental childcare for the first child on the birth of the second child
We investigated the effects of intergeneration childcare on the birth of the second child in China with both theoretical and empirical analysis
Summary
Due to decades of falling birth rates and increase in life expectancy in China, population aging, a significant obstacle to social and economic development, is becoming a pressing issue that needs to be resolved. According to the China Statistical Yearbook in 2020 [1], the number of elderly people aged 65 and over was 138 million in 2014. This number has risen to 176 million in 2019 [1]. While the elderly population increases rapidly, the birth rate continues to decline, which is widely perceived as a significant obstacle for the development of the labor force in China in the decades to come. Giving birth to a second child is a multifaceted issue and strongly related to a longterm plan
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