Grain Prices and Vital Statistics in a Portuguese Rural Parish, 1671–1720

Abstract

The rural parish of Turcifal in Portuguese Estremadura in 1671 reflected its standard of living in an unexpected fashion. If the prices of grain grown by the people of this parish are used as an economic guide with high prices reflecting poor agricultural years and low ones representing successful harvests, and such data are then compared with the local statistics, interesting demographic facts result. The mean annual number of marriages and births did not differ significantly between good and bad harvest years. There were, however, a statistically significantly larger number of girls born in poor harvest years; whereas in good years boys were born in excess of the expected sex-ratio. It is suggested that poor nutrition during pregnancy, or possibly some other factor influencing both simultaneously, increased the incidence of unsuccessful gestations, which are more likely to be of males, resulting in a proportionately higher number of female live births.Linear correlations between the price of wheat or barley and the mortality of females showed high significance when the grain is barley and a low significance when it is wheat, suggesting that there may have been a differential use of the food supply. No significance appears when the price of grain is compared with male mortality implying that the men had preferential access to scarce food. The sex-ratio at death, including all ages and all causes, shows an excess of females.