Grain Price Forecasting Using a Hybrid Stochastic Method

Abstract

Grain price forecasting is significant for all market participants in managing risks and planning operations. However, precise forecasting of price series is difficult because of the inherent stochastic behavior of grain price. In this paper, a novel hybrid stochastic method for grain price forecasting is introduced. The proposed method combines decomposed stochastic time series processes with artificial neural networks. The initial parameters of the hybrid stochastic model are optimized by a random search using a genetic algorithm. The proposed method is finally validated in China’s national grain market and compared with several recent price forecasting models. Results indicate that the proposed hybrid stochastic method provides a satisfactory forecasting performance in grain price series.