Grade Prediction with Neural Collaborative Filtering

Abstract

Over the past decade low graduation and retention rates has plagued higher education institutions. To assist students in choosing a sequence of courses, choosing majors and successful academic pathways; many institutions provide several on-site academic advising services supported by data driven educational technologies. Accurate performance prediction can serve as the backbone for degree planning software, personalized advising systems and early warning systems that can identify students at-risk of dropping from their field of study. In this work, we present a deep learning based recommender system approach called Neural Collaborative Filtering (NCF) for predicting the grade a student will earn in a course that he/she plans to take in the next-term. Prior grade prediction methods are based on matrix factorization (MF) where students and courses are represented in a latent knowledge space. The deep learning inspired approach provides added flexibility in learning the latent spaces in comparison to MF approaches. The proposed approach also incorporates instructor information besides student and course information. Moreover, for proper analysis of the learned model parameters, we assume the embeddings obtained for students, courses and instructors should be non-negative. This non-negative NCF model referred by NCFnn model adds a rectified linear units (ReLU) on the embedding layer of NCF. The experimental results on datasets from George Mason University, a large, public university in the United States, demonstrate that the proposed NCF approaches significantly outperform competitive baselines across different test sets.