Government's public panic emergency capacity assessment and response strategies under sudden epidemics: A fuzzy Petri net-based approach

Abstract

In the post-epidemic era, public panic has emerged as a highly significant secondary disaster, necessitating an urgent enhancement of emergency management capabilities by governments at all levels. In order to ensure a robust assessment of the government's ability to manage public panic, it is crucial to effectively address the influence of uncertain and ambiguous factors associated with such scenarios. This paper proposes a governmental public panic emergency management capability assessment method based on fuzzy Petri nets. By analyzing the factors influencing public panic across the four evolutionary stages, namely gestation, outbreak, diffusion, and fading, we establish a hierarchical evaluation index system for assessing emergency management capabilities. Additionally, we develop a range of multi-scenario emergency management strategies. To address the challenges posed by uncertainty, randomness, fuzziness, and insufficient statistical data within the assessment index system, we introduce fuzzy Petri nets and fuzzy reasoning rules to evaluate the emergency management capability of the assessment system and derive the optimal emergency management strategy. According to example simulations, the effectiveness and practicality of models and rules constructed using fuzzy Petri nets are demonstrated, highlighting their superiority over traditional assessment methods. This comprehensive approach equips the government with a versatile toolkit for effectively managing public panic emergencies.