Government Response to COVID-19 Using Stringency Index Among 151 Countries and Six Regions

Abstract

Background: Amidst a global COVID-19 pandemic situation, government adequate preparation and response plays an important role. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the trend of government response to COVID-19 in six regions, by country, and to identify the national variables affecting the government’s response. Method: This study was designed using data from a panel survey in 151 countries across six regions between January 1, 2020 and May 18, 2020, using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker Stringency Index and the World Bank Open DATA. This study used linear regression, nonlinear regression model, heat diagrams, and bubble chart to analyze the COVID-19 trends. In addition, between-within model was used to compare the Stringency Index’s determinants by country. Findings: The stringency index in six regions increased continuously until the third week of April, and then it began to decline. Four countries - Burkina Faso, Madagascar, New Zealand, South Korea - had relaxed the government response. As a result of analyzing the government response according to the trend of COVID-19 as of April 1st, AFRO is a cautionary stage, EURO is a stable stage, PAHO is an Appropriate response, and WPRO is an overreaction. Among national indicators education was identified as the greatest national indicator with the greatest effect on governments response to COVID-19. Interpretation: The government response to COVID-19 in six regions has been relaxing. However, a total of 42 countries, with AFRO(14), PAHO(8), EURO(6), EMRO(6), WPRO(4), and SEARO(2) are still at the cautionary stage, confirming the high risk of a 2nd wave of COVID-19. In particular, AFRO region being at a high risk of COVID-19 spreading, And also 14 countries in AFRO are still in cautionary stage, thus they need to prepare for the spread of COVID-19. Though other regions’ countries are now in relaxing level, they need to prepare for the second wave of covid-19. Finally, active participation of citizen is important to control the COVID-19 while easing the government response. And education at the national level could effectively led the participation of citizens. Funding Statement: This work is supported by the Korea International Cooperation Agency under the title “The National Campaign for Promoting Knowledge, Attitude and Behavioral Change in Population and Development in Ethiopia” from 2019–2023 (No. P2019-00160-1). Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.