Abstract
The present contribution is aimed at offering evidence of the impact of antiCOVID government actions on trade. Using monthly Eurostat data, it investigates the relationship between the turnover of sales and the adoption of governmental measures. Explanatory variables encompass three indexes measuring the government response, namely, a stringency, a health containment and an economic support index. A consumer confidence index is used as control variable. It has been estimated through a generalised least squares model with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The results outline that the percentage change of the index of deflated turnover of retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco is positively correlated with consumer confidence and negatively correlated with restrictive governmental measures. It is also determined that the percentage change of the index of deflated turnover of retail sale via internet is positively correlated with stringency governmental measures, this confirms the growing importance of internet as channel for trade.
Highlights
The COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) outbreak has resulted in a major worldwide economic depression (Tisdell, 2020)
The results outlined a positive relationship between consumer confidence and the percentage change of the index of deflated turnover of retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco; a negative relation between restrictive governmental measures; a negative relation between consumer confidence and the percentage change of the index of deflated turnover of retail sale via mail order houses or Internet
The World Bank accounts for the major efforts made by the national governments to face the COVID-19 crisis and suggests that the necessary actions taken to check the spreading of the virus, such as the lockdowns, together with the voluntary curtailments of both demand and supply, have engendered a novel blend of negative shocks activating a profound and widespread recession (World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June, 2020)1
Summary
The COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) outbreak has resulted in a major worldwide economic depression (Tisdell, 2020). The focus of the public attention on the impact of the aforementioned measures on the economic activity is paramount (Ashraf, 2020) In this perspective, the present contribution offers a preliminary reflection on the extent economic activity, measured by means of turnover in the retail sector reacts to the crisis engendered by COVID19 in 29 European countries. The results of the analysis, together with comments on the diverse responses to the Government actions of the two retail sectors considered will highlight the innovative aspects of this contribution. This project constitutes a preliminary analysis, likely to be repeated periodically, to verify the hypotheses that will be formulated
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