Government Interventions and Control Policies to Contain COVID-19 Outbreak: Global Analysis of Evidence During the First 4 Months

Abstract

Background: The overarching aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness over time of government interventions, policy restrictions, and the impact of risk factors on COVID-19 spread and mortality, globally, regionally and by country-income level, through May 18th. Additionally, we used Italy, South Korea, and Spain to illustrate critical time-points when government interventions could have been applied to achieve maximal COVID-19 prevention. Methods: We created a global database merging WHO daily case reports (from 218 countries/territories) with other socio-demographic and population health measures from January 21 st to May 18th, 2020. A 4-level government policy interventions score was created that varied from 0 to 3 representing “low”, “intermediate”, “high”, and “very-high” interventions. Findings: Our results support use of very high government interventions to effectively suppress both COVID-19 spread and mortality, globally compared to other policy levels of control. Additionally, we found that only very-high level government interventions suppressed COVID-19 mortality close to pre-intervention estimates. Similar trends in virus propagation and mortality were observed in all country-income levels and specific regions. An inverse relationship with intensive care beds and mortality was also found. Interpretation: Rapid implementation of government interventions are needed to contain the COVID-19 outbreak and reduce COVID-19 related mortality.Funding Statement: No funding was received for this study. Declaration of Interests: The authors report no relationships that could be construed as a conflict of interest. Ethics Approval Statement: The study’s protocol has been approved by the research ethics board at the Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu (PIC-67-20, Barcelona, Spain).