Government expenditure and longevity of African leaders

Abstract

This study examines the effect of government's military, education and health expenditure on the longevity of Sub-Saharan Africa state leaders. This research is particularly important in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa, a region where public expenditure on education and health is relatively low despite these sectors having been long identified in the economic literature as pillars of economic development. The study uses a survival model with a sample of 81 office periods from 37 Sub-Saharan Africa countries for the period 2000 to 2017. Potential endogeneity is addressed using instrumental variables. The data shows that, after 10 years in office, government expenditure per capita on the military increases on average while it decreases for education and health. Furthermore, autocratic leaders spend more on the military than democratic ones, and the reverse for education and health expenditure. Although the data shows a positive correlation between military expenditure and leaders’ longevity, the regression analysis does not identify a causal effect of military spending on duration in office. The analysis also shows that education and health expenditures do not influence duration in office. This latter finding points to the necessity of reforming governance in the region in order to better align leaders’ incentives with the social needs of the general population.