Abstract
When comparing both GDP loss and mortality across countries, it appears that countries that have managed to save more lives during the Covid-19 pandemic have also managed to save their economies better. What accounts for these stark differences in country performances? In this article, we argue that a salient feature of economic and health performance is the degree of trust populations have in their governments. We set up a heuristic analytical framework that models this relation, under particular assumptions about what drives government and individual behavior, in order to better understand the mechanisms that may be at work. We identify three key roles that trust in government may play in enforcing social distancing policies, conveying credible information for individual decision-making, and shaping government attitudes towards risk. We argue that these implications are consistent with the empirical evidence. We also discuss the relevance of other forms of trust, namely, interpersonal trust and trust in science.
Highlights
One salient feature of the Covid-19 pandemic compared to previous ones is that, for the first time, governments around the world have chosen to implement very costly measures, such as national lockdowns
What accounts for this positive relation, and for the stark differences in country performances? In this article, we propose that a striking determinant of both economic and health performances may be the degree of trust populations have in their government
We identify three key roles that trust in government (TG) can play in the context of this pandemic: (1) in enforcing social distancing rules, (2) in convincing people of the seriousness of the health risks, and (3) in affecting a government’s attitude towards risk
Summary
One salient feature of the Covid-19 pandemic compared to previous ones is that, for the first time, governments around the world have chosen to implement very costly measures, such as national lockdowns These measures were met with unequal success in reducing Covid-19 related mortality. We identify three key roles that TG can play in the context of this pandemic: (1) in enforcing social distancing rules, (2) in convincing people of the seriousness of the health risks, and (3) in affecting a government’s attitude towards risk We illustrate these mechanisms by comparing particular country cases, and we argue that the implications of the theory we present are broadly consistent with the results of a wide range of empirical studies. We conclude with a discussion of the possible effects of other forms of trust on performance
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