Got forages? Understanding potential returns on investment in &lt;i&gt;Brachiaria&lt;/i&gt; spp. for dairy producers in Eastern Africa

Ben Schiek,Carlos González,Steven D Prager,Solomon Mwendia

doi:10.17138/tgft(6)117-133

Abstract

Production of livestock and dairy products in Sub-Saharan Africa struggles to keep pace with growing demand. The potential exists to close this gap in a climate-friendly way through the introduction of improved forage varieties of the Brachiaria genus. We assess the potential economic impact of the development and release of such varieties in 6 Eastern African countries using an economic surplus model. Results are presented across a range of potential scenarios involving different adoption rates and percentage increases in production. For all but the lowest levels of adoption and production increases, improved forages have the potential for positive return on investment. Using these results, we present formulae that help readers calculate the adoption rate or percentage increase in production necessary to achieve specific desired levels of net benefit. Overall, the model output suggests that investment in a forages research program related to the qualities of the forage itself as well as programs to enhance dissemination and adoption of new materials would be low risk and have high likelihood for positive outcomes, generating discounted net benefits in the order of multiple tens of millions of dollars over a 30-year time horizon.

Highlights

Brachiaria technology and milk productionDemand for livestock products in Sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing and is projected to continue increasing due to population growth, rising incomes and urbanization (Thornton et al 2007; FAO 2009; Thornton 2010; Robinson and Pozzi 2011; Ghimire et al 2015)
Production of livestock products is further complicated by climate change (Thornton et al 2007; Thornton 2010)
Rain-fed croplivestock systems are constrained by a shortage of feed resources during dry seasons, a situation that is systematically aggravated by increasing pressures from climate change and variability (Dzowela 1990; Thornton 2010; Rakotoarisoa et al 2011)

Summary

Introduction

Brachiaria technology and milk productionDemand for livestock products in Sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing and is projected to continue increasing due to population growth, rising incomes and urbanization (Thornton et al 2007; FAO 2009; Thornton 2010; Robinson and Pozzi 2011; Ghimire et al 2015). Building on our earlier work (González et al 2016), in this study we present an ex-ante assessment of the potential welfare impacts of increasing milk production by introducing such technology to mixed rainfed crop-livestock systems (Table 1; Figure 3A) in Eastern Africa, using the economic surplus method previously described by Alston et al (1995).

Results

Conclusion