Good volatility, bad volatility, and time series return predictability

Abstract

We propose a least squares estimator weighted by a combination of lagged realized semivariances related to positive and negative returns (WLS-CRS) and use univariate models alone and in combination to reveal significant return predictability. For an investor with a mean-variance preference who allocates a portfolio based on an equal-weighted combination of WLS-CRS model forecasts, the annual certainty equivalent return is 242.8 basis points higher than that received by an investor whose portfolio is allocated based on historical average forecasts. In forecasting stock returns, WLS-CRS estimates outperform the popular ordinary least squares estimates in both statistical and economic evaluation frameworks. WLS-CRS also outperforms estimators based on least squares weighted by lagged realized volatility. We further demonstrate the dominant role of negative return semivariance in improved forecasting performance. Our main findings hold through several robustness checks, including alternative validation samples, different risk aversion coefficients, and various forecast combinations.