Abstract
We consider the conditions of peace and violence among ethnic groups, testing a theory designed to predict the locations of violence and interventions that can promote peace. Characterizing the model's success in predicting peace requires examples where peace prevails despite diversity. Switzerland is recognized as a country of peace, stability and prosperity. This is surprising because of its linguistic and religious diversity that in other parts of the world lead to conflict and violence. Here we analyze how peaceful stability is maintained. Our analysis shows that peace does not depend on integrated coexistence, but rather on well defined topographical and political boundaries separating groups, allowing for partial autonomy within a single country. In Switzerland, mountains and lakes are an important part of the boundaries between sharply defined linguistic areas. Political canton and circle (sub-canton) boundaries often separate religious groups. Where such boundaries do not appear to be sufficient, we find that specific aspects of the population distribution guarantee either sufficient separation or sufficient mixing to inhibit intergroup violence according to the quantitative theory of conflict. In exactly one region, a porous mountain range does not adequately separate linguistic groups and that region has experienced significant violent conflict, leading to the recent creation of the canton of Jura. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that violence between groups can be inhibited by physical and political boundaries. A similar analysis of the area of the former Yugoslavia shows that during widespread ethnic violence existing political boundaries did not coincide with the boundaries of distinct groups, but peace prevailed in specific areas where they did coincide. The success of peace in Switzerland may serve as a model to resolve conflict in other ethnically diverse countries and regions of the world.
Highlights
Efforts to resolve conflicts and achieve sustained peace are guided by perspectives about how conflict and peace are based in interpersonal and intergroup relationships, as well as historical, social, economic and political contexts
The geography of languages primarily reflects the extent of invasions prior to the existence of current political boundaries and has remained stable in most areas for over a thousand years [5]
Our results suggest that these political borders were instrumental in reducing ethnic violence, whereas the violence in other areas of Yugoslavia was not prevented because of poor alignment of borders with population groups
Summary
Efforts to resolve conflicts and achieve sustained peace are guided by perspectives about how conflict and peace are based in interpersonal and intergroup relationships, as well as historical, social, economic and political contexts. We introduced a complex systems theory of ethnic conflict that describes conflicts in areas of the former Yugoslavia and India with high accuracy [1]. In this theory, details of history, and social and economic conditions are not the primary determinants of peace or conflict. We consider a more subtle third approach, that of within-state boundaries in which intergroup cooperation and autonomy are both present. The success of this approach is of particular importance as the world becomes more connected through international cooperation. As illustrated by the European Union, the role of borders as boundaries is changing
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