Gold price prediction using Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM)

Abstract

Gold has an important role in worldwide economics. Gold is not only used in jewelry but also can be a good deal for investment however several factors can affect the fluctuation in gold which can make the risk of investing in gold is bigger for many people. Therefore, is very important to predict the gold price for people who invest in gold in order to help reduce the investment risk. This study will implement a hybrid method from Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). CNN can extract useful knowledge and learn the internal representation of time-series data, and LSTM networks will identify short-term and long-term dependencies effectively. This research will use daily time frame data and weekly time frame data. This research also tried some experiments to find the best hyperparameters of batch size and epochs in ratio data 60:40 and 80:20. The best result obtained in the daily time of ratio data 60:40 with RMSE 13.67953 and MAE 9,40998, while in ratio data 80:20 has RMSE 15,53199 and MAE 12,78120. In weekly time has obtained the RMSE 38,01949 and MAE 28,32035 for ratio data 60:40 while in ratio data 80:20 the result was RMSE 32,61283 and MAE 22,74638. Those results shows that CNN-LSTM model can predict the trend of daily time frame gold price.