God’s Dice: Bayesian Probability and Providence

Abstract

The Reverend Thomas Bayes has recently become best known for his mathematical Theorem, but Bayes’ vocation, and primary identity, was that of minister. Bayes’ writings include a tract on divine benevolence and an essay on the philosophy of calculus as well as what has come to be known as Bayes’ Theorem. Two and a half centuries ago, Bayes affirmed both the Providence of God and the probabilistic nature of reality. This essay explores some implications of Bayes’ Theorem in light of his theology. The central thesis is that it is fruitful to make the connection between Bayes’ mathematical theory of probability, its implications when extended in time, and his view of God as the continuous in-breaking of the good tending to the benefit of all creation. In so doing, Bayes suggests ways to shed light on current theological and philosophical discussions, including theodicy, religion and science, and chance and Providence.