Goal Programming Priority Sensitivity Analysis: An Application in Natural Resource Decision Making Processes

Abstract

A Cross-Florida Navigable Waterway was proposed by the Jefferson Administration (1801–1809) and Congress authorized the first study in 1826. Four alternative routes were considered in the Survey Report of 1829 (Senate Document 102, 20th Congress). Serious construction of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal (CFBC) began in 1964 on the basis of a 1942 authorization. Construction was halted in 1971 with the project about one-third completed and with a sunk investment of about $74 million. Its status is described as “holding.” A substantial restudy of the project was undertaken in 1974–76 by the Corps of Engineers. One of these restudy efforts, sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency, utilized goal programming in order to consider both economic and environmental objectives simultaneously. Since these objectives had been considered separately before, the approach was a step forward. There were the difficult problems of quantification of environmental goals and specification of priority weights to measure economic and environmental trade-offs. These were resolved with a sensitivity analysis of the goal weights which utilized estimates of a triangular distribution for each goal.