Go to field, look around, measure and then run models

Abstract

In all scientific fields there has been a substantial increase in the proportion of published studies that rely on numerical modeling approaches. Models and techniques that are applied to visualize digital data are increasingly used to assess climatological phenomena such as the urban canopy layer heat island. However, an increasing number of these studies fail to include proper validation of modeling activities using reliable and representative data collected from either laboratory or field experiments. This makes it difficult to determine the performance of the model and to make effective management decisions based on the model results. In this article the current practice of proposing measures to mitigate urban heat in Singapore, based only on numerical simulations, is examined. In 2015 the government set forth the national target of reducing 4 °C the ambient temperature in housing states during the next five years. Since then, scores of experts have provided proposals to mitigate the urban heat island effect using sophisticated software for their evaluation, but none using comprehensive field observations. There is a concern that important nuances in understanding the links between the atmosphere, urban surface and human activities may be missed due to a lack of extensive field measurements to initiate and validate the models. Thus decisions based purely on model output may not provide effective solutions. This opinion piece aims to invite modelers to team with experimentalists and field-work experts to get reliable observations to support their recommendations based on numerical simulations.