Abstract
AbstractThis research seeks to determine effects of rising interest in gluten-free foods on U.S. retail food demand and, ultimately, producer and consumer welfare. Increased gluten-free interest led to a modest reduction in cereals and bakery demand and increases in meat, alcoholic beverages, and food away from home demand. Combining estimated effects with an equilibrium displacement model suggests the reduction in cereal and bakery demand decreases wheat and barley producer profits by US$7.2 million/year. After accounting for positive demand impacts on other products, results indicate wheat and barley supply is redistributed away from food production into animal production, increasing wheat producer welfare.
Highlights
Following the publication of popular books such as Wheat Belly (Davis, 2011) and Grain Brain (Perlmutter, 2013), consumer interest in gluten-free products grew
The recent interest in purchasing gluten-free food products is being described as a fad (Reilly, 2016)
Optimal gluten-free index lag length specifications can be found in Table 2 along with parameter estimates from iterative seemingly unrelated regressions
Summary
Following the publication of popular books such as Wheat Belly (Davis, 2011) and Grain Brain (Perlmutter, 2013), consumer interest in gluten-free products grew. Navarro (2016) found that consumers perceive food products to be healthier if a gluten-free label is present This common perception is the leading argument individuals without celiac disease provide for adhering to a gluten-free diet (Mintel Group Ltd., 2016). The prevalence of celiac disease in U.S citizens remained stable at around 1% of the population, yet in 2014 an estimated 5.4 million people without gluten intolerance adhered to a gluten-free diet (Choung et al, 2017).. The prevalence of celiac disease in U.S citizens remained stable at around 1% of the population, yet in 2014 an estimated 5.4 million people without gluten intolerance adhered to a gluten-free diet (Choung et al, 2017).3 For these reasons, the recent interest in purchasing gluten-free food products is being described as a fad (Reilly, 2016). While a variety of factors have likely contributed to wheat’s demise, the gluten-free diet is one potential culprit.
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