Globalization, Technology, and the Skill Premium: A Quantitative Analysis

Abstract

We construct a model of international trade and multinational production (MP) to examine the impact of globalization on the skill premium in skill-abundant and skill-scarce countries. The key mechanisms in our framework arise from the interaction between three elements: cross-country differences in factor endowments and sectoral productivities, technological heterogeneity across producers within sectors, and skill-biased technology. Reductions in trade and/or MP costs induce a reallocation of resources towards a country's comparative advantage sector (increasing the skill premium in skill-abundant countries and reducing it in skill-scarce countries) and within sectors towards more productive and skill-intensive producers (increasing the skill premium in all countries).We parameterize the model to match salient features of the extent and composition of trade and MP between the U.S. and skill-abundant and skill-scarce countries in 2006. We show that a reduction in trade and MP costs, moving from autarky to 2006 levels of trade and MP, increases the skill premium by roughly 5% in skill-abundant and skill-scarce countries. We also show that the growth in US trade and MP between 1966 and 2006 accounts for 1/9th of the 24% rise in the US skill premium over this period. MP is at least as important as international trade in generating this rise in the skill premium.