Abstract

All truths wait in all things, They neither hasten their own delivery nor resist it. Walt Whitman The changing economy and regional Australia Over the past two decades, Australia has witnessed marked changes in population, employment and educational opportunity. Some regions have declined, while others have experienced growth. The causes are diverse and far from consistent. As noted in a 1999 Productivity Commission report: `Globalisation, technological advances, government policy changes and other factors [have] placed added pressure on businesses and communities in some regions. Yet these same factors [have] resulted in employment growth in other regions.' The population in New South Wales between 1986 and 1996 increased significantly but not uniformly. In coastal regions numbers grew by 13.3%, from 4.5 to 5.1 million, while inland the population grew by only 5%, from 840,000 to 880,000. In remote New South Wales, population fell by 4.6%, from 41,000 to 39,000. The ABS analysis of the 1991 and 1996 censuses with respect to non-metropolitan population in Australia notes that growth is concentrated in particular ecological areas: * peri-urban areas surrounding major urban centres with significant commuter populations; * attractive coastal localities, especially along the east, southeast and southwest coasts; * some major regional centres; * some mining and tourist destinations; and * along some major roads such as the Hume Highway, and rivers. Employment over the period grew by 16.9% in coastal regions, by 7.9% inland, but fell by 2.7% in remote New South Wales. Interestingly, the employment figures better the population number in each instance, probably reflecting the increase in female participation in the work force. Since 1996 these trends in population and employment appear to have accelerated as the impact of micro-economic reforms starts to be felt throughout the whole economy; while advances in information exchange, communications and technology bring new opportunities for economic development in both metropolitan and country regions. In this same period domestic and export markets have expanded, with a more cost-effective operation of existing businesses and the development of many new businesses and services -- but often at a high social price for non-competitive enterprises and individuals. The theory behind trade liberalisation, globalisation and the new economy may be understood and even accepted; yet adapting to change remains difficult. For country Australia the pressures are more intense than in the cities because of the progressive decline in rural incomes from traditional farming sources, aggravated by selling on open markets where price has no relationship to the cost of production. A report released in 1999 by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research identifies a growing concentration of wealth in Sydney and Melbourne. The assessment is based on the availability of 21st century jobs -- in accountancy, computers, engineering, finance, health, media, science and management. All are part of and hence competitive in a global trading environment. In contrast many formerly profitable rural industry sectors have languished or disappeared. In most smaller country towns, population and employment continue to decline and annual personal income in rural Australia remains far lower than in the cities. Banks closures, empty shops, vacant offices and unemployment remain a sad reality. Indeed we may well ask how the rural sector can become part of the new economy. Or, more fundamentally: Is globalisation compatible with regional renewal? Vinod Thomas, a vice-president of the World Bank writes (Economist 7 October 2000) of the centrality of growth in reducing poverty and suggests that what is needed is not merely `more growth but better growth'. Addressing the problems of the developing world, he identifies three difficulties in achieving equal trade opportunity: * severe inequalities in investment in health and education; * poor governance; and * environmental quality. …

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