Abstract

A global wanning projection was conducted on the Earth Simulator by using a very high horizontal resolution atmospheric general circulation model with 20-km grid. Tropical cyclones (TCs) and the rain band (Baiu) during the East Asian summer monsoon season are selected as the main targets of this study, because these bring typical extreme events but so far the global climate models have not given reliable simulations and projections due to their insufficient resolutions. The model reproduces TCs and a Baiu rain band reasonably well under the present-day climate conditions. In a warmer climate at the end of this century, the model projects, under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, that the annual mean occurrence number of TCs decreases by about 30% globally (but increased in the North Atlantic) and TCs with large maximum surface winds increase. The Baiu rain band activities tend to intensify and last longer until August, suggesting more damages due to heavy rainfalls in a warmer climate.

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