Global warming potential and absolute global temperature change potential from carbon dioxide and methane fluxes as indicators of regional sustainability – A case study of Jämtland, Sweden

Abstract

Abstract This study presents a regional model showing the balance of carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in the Swedish county Jamtland, applying a Global Warming Potential 20-year time horizon (GWP20) to meet the Paris agreement horizon and regional policy goals. The results clearly show the necessity to take both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic emissions into consideration in analyses to be able to make proper priorities in future action strategies. The total annual impact from Jamtland calculated as carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2eq) is an uptake of 2.4 Mton (19 ton per capita). Jamtland shows large annual uptakes in forests (12.7 Mton CO2), but also large emissions of methane (80 kton corresponding to 6.7 Mton CO2eq), mainly from lakes, mires and ruminants. Anthropogenic carbon Greenhous gas emissions are dominated by transportation, working machines and consumption (mainly imported indirect emissions). As a complement to GWP also the Absolute Global Temperature Change Potential (AGTP) as degree K response, is presented per sector and total for Jamtland County, for yearly emissions (as a pulse) and continuous emissions over 200 years. A yearly pulse from Jamtland gives a temperature response of about 0 K after 10 years and about −4 μK (cooling effect) after about 50 years). Using both GWP and AGTP as indicators improves the possibilities to find ways how to optimize regional climate policies to reduce global warming until a specific year. Strategies and action plans should be developed focusing on the following: - Reduced regional transportation and consumption activity. - Increased (prioritized) use of renewable fuels for working machines in forestry and agriculture, as well as for heavy trucks. - Evaluate the potential to reduce emissions of methane from wetlands and mires. - Increase/optimize carbon dioxide assimilation in forests.