Global warming leads to growth increase in Pinus sylvestris in the Kazakh steppe

Abstract

Forest community structure and function in climate-sensitive regions exhibit uncertain changes under the influence of global warming. Especially in northern Central Asia, the response of pine growth to climate change remains unclear. Here, we identified changes in growth trends and climate response in a total of 646 trees for the abundant species Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) at 30 sites in the Kazakh steppe. We used basal area increment, regional curve standardization and negative exponential curve detrended chronologies to comprehensively analyze trends in pine growth, and linear mixed effects and random forest models were calculated to explore growth-climate relationships. An increase in the overall growth of Scots pine under the influence of global warming, expressed in this region by increasing temperatures and precipitation, was observed during the period 1950–2018. Spatial differences in climate response between the sub-regions were identified showing that pine growth is more influenced by summer precipitation in the eastern compared to the western and central Kazakh steppe. Warm spring temperatures and more precipitation are important common climatic factors affecting pine growth in northern Central Asia. Moreover, increased drought intensity and longer drought duration negatively impact pine growth in this region. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation were identified to be the main atmospheric circulation patterns that influence the spatial differentiation in pine growth in this steppe. Albeit pine growth in northern Central Asia shows an increasing trend currently but also in future climate scenarios, the risks and challenges posed by drought should not be underestimated.