Global Warming in Cameron Highlands: Forecasting its Temperature Level via ARIMA vs ARAR

Abstract

The average global temperature has increased at a rapid rate over the past 50 years leading to global warming. The impact of climate change can be felt across the continents. In this research, analysis was conducted to model and forecast the monthly temperature of Cameron Highlands in 2020 and 2021, against its historical monthly average temperature from January 1990 until December 2019. Two (2) methods namely (i) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and (ii) Autoregressive Autoregressive (ARAR) algorithm were compared to determine the best model to forecast the monthly temperature of Cameron Highlands. SARIMA (1,1,2)(1,1,1)12 was found to be the best at forecasting the monthly temperature in Cameron Highlands as RMSE and MAPE values were lower than ARAR. In year 2021, the temperature in Cameron Highlands is estimated to increase by 1.6 °C. The result of the forecast showed that its monthly temperature was expected to increase in the next two (2) years. Hence, this calls for serious action to be taken by higher authorities.