Global warming — facts, assessment, countermeasures

Abstract

Global primary energy consumption amounts to 8.38 billion tonnes oil equivalent (OE) (1996) and is projected to increase by 1.3% per year for the industrialized countries and by up to 9.2% per year for the developing countries. Fossil energy's share was 7.541 billion tonnes OE in 1996 with rising tendency. The order of magnitude of proved reserves of fossil energy sources is 950 billion tonnes OE (1996), and certain present probable and possible reserves will become proved ones in the years to come. Fossil energy will, therefore, remain the number one energy source until far into the next century. The use of fossil energy produced 23.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in 1996 with oil and gas contributing about 60% to this figure. It is estimated that continued use of fossil energy will lead to an increase of the average global temperature by 1.0–3.5°C in the coming 50–100 years. Though the forecasts of future CO 2-emissions from fossil energy use as well as the magnitude of their influence on global warming are much disputed, the impact of CO 2-emissions on global warming itself is widely admitted. There is much dissense on the climatic consequences of global warming. It cannot be ruled out, however, that these consequences may be detrimental to mankind. This has in a sense of a “no regret policy” triggered substantial activity worldwide to decrease emission of greenhouse gases, especially of CO 2, and various attempts have been made to set binding limits for the emission of these gases. The harmonized worldwide implementation of CO 2-reduction strategies is, however, far from being realized. OECD-countries have made substantial progress in applying these strategies. Nevertheless, the contribution of the industrialized countries to worldwide CO 2-emissions is still over-proportionally large. The cost of developing and applying CO 2-reduction technologies are tremendous and prohibitive for most of the emerging economies. There is an obligation of the industrialized countries in their own interest to develop and make available these technologies wherever they are needed. The cost/efficiency ratio of CO 2-reduction measures must be a decisive criterion for their application. There are serious obstacles, though, to reducing CO 2-emissions while satisfying the energy needs of our world, e.g. lacking international harmonization, national needs and egoisms, rapid growth of world population and strongly increasing energy demand of emerging economies. In summing up, though an anthropogenic contribution to global warming cannot be proved for the time being, it cannot be ruled out forever. Therefore, internationally harmonized measures for CO 2-reduction have to be taken in the sense of a “no regret policy” to avert potential damage from mankind and, thus, contribute in this sense to a sustainable development with fossil energy.