Global warming: China's contribution to climate change.

Abstract

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357 Rapid industrialization is often thought to have increased China's impact on the climate system, but the magnitude of the change has remained stubbornly difficult to quantify. Bengang Li et al. use biogeochemical and atmospheric models, combined with a suite of observational data sets, to provide sectoral estimates, with uncertainties. They find that China is responsible for about 10% of the global increase in radiative forcing (essentially, the additional warming) since pre-industrial conditions. Carbon dioxode is the single biggest warming factor, but methane and black carbon are also important. Sulfate aerosols provide a strong counteractive effect, and efforts to reduce pollution could have the effect of accelerating China's contribution to radiative forcing, unless simultaneous emission reductions are put into place.