Global Warming and the Species Richness of Bats in Texas

Abstract

General circulation models provide predictions for global climate under scenarios of increased atmospheric CO2. Climate change is expected to lead directly to changes in distributions of vegetation associations. Distribution of animals will also change to the extent that animals rely on vegetation for food or shelter. Bat species in Texas appear to be restricted, in part, by the availability of roosts. We used geographic information systems and the Holdridge vegetation‐climate association scheme to model the effect of climate change on bat distributions and species richness in Texas. Habitat characteristics for each species were identified from the literature and included vegetation, topography, and availability of caves. We assumed caves and topography to be fixed relative to climate. Vegetation changes were predicted from the Holdridge vegetation‐climate association scheme. The redistribution of bats following climate change was predicted based on the new locations of suitable habitat characteristics. Under conditions of global warming tropical forests were predicted to expand into Texas; tree‐roosting bats were sensitive to this change in vegetation. Cavity‐roosting bats were less affected by changes in vegetation, but, where response was predicted, ranges decline.