Global Warming and the Emerging Importance of Natural Gas

Abstract

Abstract The paper examines the environmental crisis facing the planet in the coming decades due to an enhanced 'greenhouse effect', its causes and impacts. It then discusses future energy demands of industrial and developing countries and shows that the latter will face a huge energy crisis with serious consequences on the environment - unless a move to cleaner fuels is adopted. It finally examines the future prospects of Natural Gas, an abundant and relatively cheap - at today's prices - primary energy source which is the most environmentally-benign of all fossil fuels. The study demonstrates why Natural Gas is regarded as the fuel of the 211 century, and our hedge against a looming environmental crisis. GLOBAL WARMING: CAUSES and IMPACTS Planet Earth is getting warmer, an indication that it is not well. The symptoms are becoming more evident, and the disease could be fatal if nothing is done about it. Yet, the cause is known, it is due to an increased 'Greenhouse effect', i.e. increased absorption in the atmosphere of the infrared radiation (heat) emitted from the earth's surface. This is a result of our altering the composition of the atmosphere through fossil fuel consumption, industrial development and agricultural expansion. The Greenhouse effect Solar radiation reaching the earth's surface warms it and it gets rid of this heat by emitting infrared radiation back to space, figure (1). There is thus a long-term balance between the incoming and outgoing radiation, which determines the mean temperature of the planet. Certain gases in the atmosphere (greenhouse gases) allow solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface unhindered but absorb some of the outgoing infrared radiation allowing less heat to escape back to space (rather like the glass of a greenhouse). Earth's temperature would be about 32C colder than now if it were not for the 'Greenhouse Effect'. It also explains the very hot conditions under the thick atmosphere of Venus and the very cold conditions under the thin weak atmosphere of Mars. The most important greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere namely : water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone. These gases are also emitted as a result of many human activities. Yet, the man-made chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's) are serious greenhouse gases beside being ozone layer killers. As we add more and more of these gases to the atmosphere, their atmospheric concentrations increase resulting in a turning up of the greenhouse thermostat and both the Earth's surface and lower atmosphere (troposphere) get warmer. Over the past century, the troposphere has warmed by about 0.5C while atmospheric CO2 has increased by over 28% from about 275 ppm (before the industrial revolution) to more than 353 ppm today. Predictions of Further Warming Figure (2) shows the contributions of the different greenhouse gases to global warming. P. 361^