Global vegetable supply towards sustainable food production and a healthy diet

Abstract

Global human health and sustainable production are threatened by an imbalance and deficiency of plant-based diet vegetable consumption across countries worldwide. Here, we analyzed the data on vegetable consumption, production, trade and eating habits. In addition, we conducted the predictions of vegetable supply in 2030, 2050, and when reached a plateau. The vegetable supply is predicted to increase from 386 g capita−1 day−1 in 2018 by 23–26 g capita−1 day−1 in 2030 and by 97–112 g capita−1 day−1 when it reached a plateau, lower than the recommended level of vegetable intake (300 g capita−1 day−1) when frequently concerning 50% vegetable lose and waste. The regions or countries with top vegetable supply are centred at global vegetable belt, e.g. Eastern Asia, Central Asia, and the Mediterranean basin, including Southern Europe and North Africa. The top vegetable supply is due to climate-dependent greater yield than the area harvested per capita. The regions not far from the global vegetable belt, e.g. South-eastern (Viet Nam), Western Africa (Niger and Mali), and Southern Asia (India), had moderate vegetable supply. These regions are predicted to increase the area harvested more than the yield to keep up with the relatively high vegetable supply in 2030. The developed regions, e.g. Northern America and Western Europe, cannot ensure the required vegetable supply by increased import and yield. Whilst the meat-preferred Caribbean, Central and South America, South-eastern Asia, and Southern Africa currently and will maintain low levels of vegetable supply. Sufficient vegetable supply cannot be guaranteed due to increased meat prefer of customers and decreased vegetable requirements potentially due to urban lifestyle and modern vegetable supply systems. Herein, it is required to reshape the dietary pattern to encourage vegetable intake and increase vegetable availability by fully utilizing the local climate primarily, and then increasing harvested area and advanced horticultural technology, thus achieving sustainable food production and a healthy diet.