Global Uncertainty and Firm Investment: Empirical Assessment

Abstract

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and non-EPU global uncertainty measures exhibit heterogeneous behavior, especially in 2010s. Using firm-level data from 36 countries, we estimate the effect of global uncertainty on corporate investment in 1997–2016. Eleven global uncertainty measures, including global EPU, are employed to encompass macro, micro, and higher-order dimensions of uncertainty. We find different effect of EPU and non-EPU global uncertainty measures on investment. Only EPU measures negatively affect investment, while non-EPU measures have positive effects, which suggests a possible first-order implication of EPU.