Global Tropical Cyclone Extreme Wave Climatology

Abstract

In tropical and sub-tropical regions, tropical cyclones represent one of the most important sources of extreme meteorological events. The extreme ocean waves generated by such events have important engineering, oceanographic and societal impacts. This presentation outlines the results of the application of a computationally efficient parametric tropical cyclone ocean wave prediction model to each of the world’s tropical cyclone basins. The parametric model is based on present understanding of wind-wave physics in such systems and is formulated through more than 300 simulations of the Wavewatch III model covering the parameter range of typical tropical cyclones. The model is applied to synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for both historical and future projected periods. In each case, the equivalent of 1000 years of synthetic tropical cyclones is simulated for each basin. Extreme value analysis of the resulting data is used to estimate the 100-year return period significant wave height distribution across each basin. The results are explained in terms of the key tropical cyclone parameters. In addition to providing a comprehensive analysis of present day tropical cyclone wave extremes, the analysis describes how such extremes are projected to change under future climate change scenarios.