Abstract
Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg(-1), 148 mg⋅kg(-1), and 172 mg⋅kg(-1) for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health.
Highlights
Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate
Global consumption of antimicrobials in food animal production was estimated at 63,151 (±1,560) tons in 2010 and is projected to rise by 67%, to 105,596 (±3,605) tons, by 2030
We use statistical models to map the global consumption of antimicrobials in food animals for 2010 and 2030
Summary
Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. In Asia, daily animal protein intake grew from 7 grams per capita per day to 25 grams per capita per day [12] between 1960 and 2013 while the proportion of the diet coming from rice and wheat progressively decreased, primarily among higher-income adults [13] To meet this demand, countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) have shifted toward highly cost-efficient and vertically integrated intensive livestock production systems. Countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) have shifted toward highly cost-efficient and vertically integrated intensive livestock production systems Because these production systems necessitate antimicrobials to keep animals healthy and maintain productivity, rising incomes in transitioning countries are effectively driving an increase in antimicrobial consumption and thereby antimicrobial resistance. In the United States, antimicrobial use in food animals is estimated to account for ∼80% of the nation’s annual antimicrobial consumption [1], a significant fraction of which involves antimicrobials that are important in human medicine in the treatment of common infections and necessary to perform medical procedures such as major surgeries, organ transplantation, and chemotherapy [2]
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