Global Termination and Recurrence Macro Trends: A Follow-Up to Licklider and Dixon

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this Special 25th Anniversary Issue, we (re)examine several macro historical trends concerning civil war termination and recurrence that were raised in the journal’s first issue by Roy Licklider and then followed-up on 10 years later by Jeffrey Dixon. These trends have to do with: (1) the global prevalence of recurrence; (2) the global prevalence of termination types; (3) patterns of recurrence by termination type, and (4) post-conflict patterns of civilian victimisation by termination type. With the advantage of more comprehensive and more systematised data, the analysis identifies several structural breaks in termination and recurrence trends, as well as differences in how outcomes regulate the inflow and outflow of fighting groups in countries. Over decades, conflict recurrence has been becoming more and more concentrated in a smaller subset of countries, and the majority of conflict recurrences are caused by new groups and not by previously terminated groups. Around 59 per cent of recurrences following peace accords are caused by new groups with no prior appearance in the conflict record, while 71 per cent of recurrences following government victory are caused by new groups. Since 2010, termination rates have declined by 25 per cent and recurrence rates have risen 44 per cent compared to the period 1990–2009. In addition, new conflicts entering the system after 2010 are up 150 per cent. As a result of these macro trends, the number of ongoing civil wars in the world is currently at an all time high.