Abstract
Summary The over-exploitation both of natural and enhanced sturgeon stocks for caviar production along with serious habitat deteriorations has led to drastic declines in the natural populations. As a consequence, IUCN in 1997 listed all commercially utilised sturgeon species world-wide in Annex II of the CITES regulations, thus requiring internationally agreed quotas for trade in order to promote protection. Demands for caviar on traditional export markets (Europe, US, Japan, Russia, and China) based on trade data from the 1980s and 1990s were extrapolated into the future to range from 300 tonnes to a maximum of 2000 tonnes annually. Historically, international trade comprised 500 tonnes per year with a marked proportion of resale over 2 years following the catch. If these trade figures are a realistic reflection of the market, the future of caviar trade will mainly be determined by demand- driven price structures. The feasibility of caviar production from aquaculture was already assessed in the 1980s, predicting an increasing importance on world markets. Russia, Iran, the European Union, and USA were among the major producers and consumers in the past. New entities in the range states as well as outside are increasingly contributing to the market, resulting in a substantial influence on the structure of the industry. The present total output of about 80–100 tonnes of caviar from aquaculture is now already exceeding the 2006 legal caviar yield from fisheries in the Caspian area (primarily supported by ocean ranching) while being close to the 2007/2008 quotas. Future trends for large scale caviar production are discussed, taking into account some of the scenarios the industry is most likely to face, including uncertainties in the market (e.g. rapid production increase and market sensitivities to overproduction with price structure effects, stress effects in production costs, reduced profit margins, product diversification; growing competition from alternative products) and opportunities (decreasing pressures on natural stocks; improved image) of this relatively new branch of aquaculture.
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