Global stability mathematical analysis for virus transmission model with latent age structure.

Abstract

Mathematical model is a very important method for the control and prevention of disease transmissing. Based on the communication characteristics of diseases, it is necesssery to add fast and slow process into the model of infectious diseases, which more effectively shows the transmission mechanism of infectious diseases. This paper proposes an age structure epidemic model with fast and slow progression. We analyze the model's dynamic properties by using the stability theory of differential equation under the assumption of constant population size. The very important threshold R0 was calculated. If R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whereas if R0>1, the Lyapunov function is used to show that endemic equilibrium is globally stable. Through more in-depth analysis for basic reproduction number, we obtain the greater the rate of slow progression of an infectious disease, the fewer the threshold results. In addition, we also provided some numerical simulations to prove our result. Vaccines do not provide lifelong immunity, but can reduce the mortality of those infected. By vaccinating, the rate of patients entering slow progression increases and the threshold is correspondingly reduced. Therefore, vaccination can effectively control the transmission of Coronavirus. The theoretical incidence predicted by mathematical model can provide evidence for prevention and controlling the spread of the epidemic.