Global stability and optimal vaccination control of SVIR models

Abstract

<abstract> <p>Vaccination is widely acknowledged as an affordable and cost-effective approach to guard against infectious diseases. It is important to take vaccination rate, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccine-induced immune decline into account in epidemic dynamical modeling. In this paper, an epidemic dynamical model of vaccination is developed. This model provides a framework of the infectious disease transmission dynamics model through qualitative and quantitative analysis. The result shows that the system may have multiple equilibria. We used the next-generation operator approach to calculate the maximum spectral radius, that is, basic reproduction number $ {R_{vac}} $. Next, by dividing the model into infected and uninfected subjects, we can prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $ {R_{vac}} < 1 $, provided certain assumptions are satisfied. When $ {R_{vac}} > 1 $, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium. Using geometric methods, we calculate the second compound matrix and demonstrate the Lozinskii measure $ \bar q \leqslant 0 $, which is equivalent to the unique endemic equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable. Then, using center manifold theory, we justify the existence of forward bifurcation. As the vaccination rate decreases, the likelihood of forward bifurcation increases. We also theoretically show the presence of Hopf bifurcation. Then, we performed sensitivity analysis and found that increasing the vaccine effectiveness rate can curb the propagation of disease effectively. To examine the influence of vaccination on disease control, we chose the vaccination rate as the optimal vaccination control parameter, using the Pontryagin maximum principle, and we found that increasing vaccination rates reduces the number of infected individuals. Finally, we ran a numerical simulation to finalize the theoretical results.</p> </abstract>