Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV) is an arbovirus transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Recent scientific evidence on Culex quinquefasciatus has suggested its potential as a vector for ZIKV, which may change the current risk zones. We aimed to quantify the world population potentially exposed to ZIKV in a spatially explicit way, considering the primary vector (A. aegypti) and the potential vector (C. quinquefasciatus). Our model combined species distribution modelling of mosquito species with spatially explicit human population data to estimate ZIKV exposure risk. We estimated the potential global distribution of C. quinquefasciatus and estimated its potential interaction zones with A. aegypti. Then we evaluated the risk zones for ZIKV considering both vectors. Finally, we quantified and compared the people under risk associated with each vector by risk level, country and continent. We found that C. quinquefasciatus had a more temperate distribution until 42° in both hemispheres, while the risk involving A. aegypti is concentrated mainly in tropical latitudes until 35° in both hemispheres. Globally, 4.2 billion people are under risk associated with ZIKV. Around 2.6 billon people are under very high risk associated with C. quinquefasciatus and 1 billion people associated with A. aegypti. Several countries could be exposed to ZIKV, which emphasises the need to clarify the competence of C. quinquefasciatus as a potential vector as soon as possible. The models presented here represent a tool for risk management, public health planning, mosquito control and preventive actions, especially to focus efforts on the most affected areas.
Highlights
Zika virus (ZIKV) is a member of the family Flaviviridae
Other studies have reported that species of the genus Culex shown that Culex pipiens is not competent to transmit ZIKV, the current scientific evidence on C. quinquefasciatus as a vector of ZIKV virus remains under debate [20,21,22,23]
We present a scenario of the potential risk of ZIKV transmission associated with the potential competence of C. quinquefasciatus as a ZIKV vector and we update the previous estimation of Alaniz et al [10] for the primary vector A. aegypti in a spatially explicit way
Summary
Zika virus (ZIKV) is a member of the family Flaviviridae. This virus is dispersed mainly through dipteran vectors of the genus Aedes; Aedes aegypti is considered the main [1,2,3]. The global risk level was estimated by Alaniz et al [10], who reported that 2.26 billion people had high or very risk levels of ZIKV exposure, while Messina et al [11] estimated 2.17 billion people at risk Both models considered only the transmission associated with the main vector A. aegypti. Culex has a wider distribution range, reaching sub-tropical regions and is present in areas with low risk of ZIKV associated with A. aegypti [14, 25]. This dissimilar distribution range of Culex mosquitoes could introduce ZIKV to areas where the conditions are unsuitable for its main vector.
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