Global Sensitivity and GLUE-Based Uncertainty Analysis of a 2D-1D Dual Urban Drainage Model

Abstract

AbstractThis paper presents a global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a dual drainage model applied to a 0.049 km2 (4.9-ha) urban catchment based on generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The model solves the nonlinear bidimensional (2D) and one-dimensional (1D) Saint-Venant equations to compute respectively the surface runoff and the flow in the sewer network. The sensitivity of the outlet hydrograph to the input parameters of the model was determined by using variance-based Sobol sensitivity indices. These indices highlight the great effect of the overland flow parameters on the model output, in contrast with the limited effect of the sewer-network parameters. The Manning coefficient of the impervious terrains was identified as the most influential model parameter. The effect on model calibration of two subjective factors of the GLUE methodology (the acceptability threshold and the shaping factor of the likelihood function) was analyzed. From this analysis, a NSE acceptability thre...