Global sensitivity analysis of water level response to harmonic aquifer disturbances through a Monte-Carlo based surrogate model with random forest algorithm

Abstract

Oscillatory water levels are often observed in monitoring wells, when aquifers are disturbed by periodical pressure diffusion (PD) sources, such as oscillatory pumping and ocean tide, and by volumetric strain (VS) sources including the far-field seismic wave and earth tide. The measured water level responses are extensively utilized to interpret aquifer properties and seismic hydrological phenomena. However, owing to wellbore effects, water levels are not always truly representative of pore pressure in aquifers, and can be significantly attenuated or even unobservable in wells. To clarify how water level responds to these disturbances, this study analyzes a global parameter sensitivity of the coupled well-aquifer model based on the assumption of a confined homogeneous aquifer. Parameter uncertainties concerning aquifer properties, source characteristics, and wellbore construction are first analyzed separately for the PD and VS sources. Subsequently, Monte-Carlo based surrogate models linking parameters and response indices are developed using the random forest algorithm. For the PD source, sensitivity results indicate that hydraulic conductivity is the most influential parameter for the yes/no responses. When hydraulic conductivity exceeds 10-4 m/s, water level observations basically represent pore pressure in aquifers. Significant amplitude changes and phase delay occur when the period of disturbances is less than 50 s, majorly due to water column inertia. For VS sources, water level responses are typically observed in aquifers with hydraulic conductivity larger than 10-7 m/s and when disturbed by a source with amplitude greater than 10-3 MPa. However, pronounced amplitude changes and phase shifts occur when the source period varies within 100 s. Consideration of the impact of wellbore effects is recommended, when interpreting water level responses induced by all periodic aquifer disturbances, especially in low-conductivity aquifers with conductivities less than 10-4 m/s.