Global sensitivity analyses to characterize the risk of earth fissures in subsiding basins

Abstract

<p>Earth fissure associated with groundwater pumping is a severe geohazard jeopardizing several subsiding basins generally in arid countries (e.g., Mexico, Arizona, Iran, China, Pakistan). Up to 15 km long, 1–2 m wide, 15–20 m deep, and more than 2 m vertically dislocated fissures have been reported. A common geological condition favoring the occurrence of earth fissures is the presence of shallow bedrock ridge buried by compacting sedimentary deposits. This study aims to improve the understanding of this mechanism by evaluating the effects of various factors on the risk of fissure formation and development. Several parameters playing a role in the fissure occurrence have been considered, such as the shape of the bedrock ridge, the aquifer thickness, the pressure depletion in the aquifer system, and its compressibility. A realistic case is developed where the characteristics of fissure like displacements and stresses are quantified with aid of a numerical approach based on finite elements for the continuum and interface elements for the discretization of the fissures. Modelling results show that the presence of bedrock ridge causes tension accumulation around its tip and results in fissure opening from land surface downward after long term piezometry depletion. Different global sensitivity analysis methods are applied to measure the importance of each single factor (or group of them) on the quantity of interest, i.e., the fissure opening. A conventional variance-based method is first presented with Sobol indices computed from Monte Carlo simulations, although its accuracy is only guaranteed with a high number of forward simulations. As alternatives, generalized polynomial chaos expansion and gradient boosting tree are introduced to approximate the forward model and implement the corresponding sensitivity assessment at a significantly reduced computational cost. All the measures provide similar results that highlight the importance of bedrock ridge in earth fissuring. Generally, the steeper bedrock ridge the higher the risk of significant fissure opening. Pore pressure depletion is secondarily key factor which is essential for fissure formation.</p>