Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program maps are erroneous

Abstract

The March 11, 2011 megathrust on the Pacific coast of the Tohoku Region, Japan, and its consequences once again confirmed the presence of evident problems in the conventional methodology of risk and earthquake loss evaluation. A systematic analysis shows that the results of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, 1992–1999) contradict the actual occurrence of strong earthquakes. In particular, since the publication of the GSHAP final results in 1999, all 60 earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.5 or higher were “surprises” for the GSHAP maps. Moreover, in half of the cases they were “big surprises,” when instead of the expected “light” or “moderate,” “significant” or even “total” destruction took place. All twelve of the deadliest earthquakes happened in 2000–2011 (total number of deaths exceeded 700000 people) prove that the GSHAP results, as well as underlying methodologies, are deeply flawed and, evidently, unacceptable for any critical risk assessments entitled to prevent disasters caused by earthquakes.